I once listened to a statistician over a couple of glasses of wine who explained to me about a theory that some of his colleagues swear by. He explained that in statistical surveys, if a sample is well chosen, 1,300 subjects can represent hundreds of millions accurately (with a +/- 1.5% error margin). So, for example, in a population of 130 million, each one of the surveyed subjects in the sample actually represent 100,000 in the greater population, and in a population of 260 million, each one of the surveyed subjects in the sample actually represent 200,000 in the greater population, etc.
He then explained that the theory in question holds that the reverse is inevitably true as well. That is, if a single person chooses to do something, that choice becomes extrapolated mathematically. For example if there are 130 million registered voters on a given election day, for every person who chooses to vote for candidate X there will be 100,000 who will also vote for candidate X; for every person who donates $10 to the campaign of candidate X there will be 100,000 who will also donate $10 to that candidate’s campaign. An action taken by one person actually triggers the same action to be taken by another 100,000 people.
“So,” I asked, “If I donate $10 to a campaign, I am actually adding $1,000,000 to that campaign’s coffers?”
“That’s right” He responded with confidence, “But only if the greater population is 130 million. If you live in a city with a registered voter population of 1,300,000 , or 1% of the national voter population, donating $10 to a national candidate will trigger $1,000,000 donated nationally, of which 1% will come from donors in your city, or $1,000. If the candidate is local rather than national, the math gets adjusted accordingly. But yeah, what you choose to do triggers others to do the same. It’s a bit like quantum entanglement, if you will.”
“Wow!” I thought, “I had no idea I had this much power! I like that!”
Now, to be sure, I know next to nothing about statistical theory, let alone Quantum Entanglement Theory, and I have no idea if this person and his theory are anywhere near the realm of sanity, but it certainly sounded plausible at the very least. And the wine we were drinking was very good, so the conversation was certainly not a waste of time.
You may be wondering what all of this has to do with Mitch McConnell. Well, I was reading this piece about Amy McGrath who is running for Senate in opposition to Moscow Mitch:
In part, the piece says: “Does she have any chance against McConnell? By far her biggest advantage is McConnell’s unpopularity. According to polling from Morning Consult, about 36% of Kentuckians approve of the senator, while 50% disapprove of him. (The rest don’t have a clear stance.) And liberals outside of Kentucky really, really do not like McConnell. Those people can’t vote, but they can give money, potentially lots of it.“
I count myself as one of those who really, really don’t like McConnell. In fact, that’s too few reallys, I would add another one or two. So I thought I would send her $10 and in the event that statistical theory is actually correct, as a registered voter in Los Angeles, I may be adding $100,000 to her coffers. Not bad! Then I thought:
— “Humm… If I tell others about the theory and I can get 10 people in Los Angeles to each send her $10, we may be adding $1,000,000 to her coffers. That’s a lot of anti-McConnell television ads between Mint Juleps on Derby day.”
Also, I don’t have much of a readership outside of Los Angeles but if by chance this thing happens to spread beyond, who knows, we may start something big. Wouldn’t it be a welcome jolt to Amy McGrath to see a ton of $$$ just appear from out of state? Like magic?
I’m doing it! Worst case, I’ll be out $10. I’ve wasted much more than that on much lesser notions. And if McGrath defeats McConnell it will likely mean the Democrats will have taken the Senate and the Moscow Mitch era nightmare will be over. And I’ll have a glass of fantastic wine that will cost much more than $10, and I’ll toast to Quantum Entanglement!
Worth it!
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